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Ozzie's Troops Getting No Love in Vegas:
This week I've had three selections. All three were on the White Sox. All three were winners.
You've got to love riding hot teams in the middle of winning streaks.
But unlike Monday and Wednesday's money-line selections on the Pale Hose at Cleveland, for Thursday's game at Kansas City I opted to take Chicago on the Run Line.
Why? Because when I released the play early Thursday morning the White Sox were already laying around -155 and I simply don't believe in playing favorites that big in baseball. Plus, as I've often said, you don't need a handicapper to tell you to play overwhelming favorites either. Thus, I decided to make Chicago a Run Line release and needed to sweat out a potential KC rally in the 9th before securing the 4-1 win.
I'm not complaining, mind you, but if I had known how Vegas would price this game as Thursday unfolded, I would have simply played Chicago on the moneyline instead. For some reason, the White Sox actually dropped from the -155 range down to -135 or -140 at many locations.
Don't ask me why the price dropped; it made no sense considering Chicago entered the contest on runs of 13-4 on the road and five in a row overall. And, as I noted in my pre-game analysis (which you can read for yourself on my homepage), Mark Buehrle had owned KC during his career, going 19-8 with a 3.48 ERA.
Buehrle did his part, allowing six hits and one run in 8.1 innings. The White Sox won by enough to get the Run Line win for me as well, improving my Best Bet run to 29-14 over the past 10 weeks. But the price drop in Vegas remains a mystery.
Get Ready For Manny Mania:
So the San Diego Padres have a home game tonight, and they're riding the big wave of a 10-21 losing skid.
OK, not exactly a big wave. More like circling the drain, perhaps. And yet, Petco Park will likely be jam-packed with all those, er, Padres fans, right?
Hey, when you've got a 34-44 record, and you play in a city that revolves around the beach and the number 70 (as in, the air is 70, the water is 70, and the people are 70), you've got to take your sellout crowds where you can get them. And the Padres will take them tonight, thanks to Manny Ramirez.
ManRam returns from his 50-game suspension as LA opens a road set at Petco. The first-place Dodgers, with the best record in baseball at 50-29, actually went a respectable 29-21 in Manny's absence. So let's get to the numbers on this matchup, as lopsided as they may be.
Los Angeles is on a bundle of positive runs, including 50-22 as a chalk, 44-18 in the National League West and 16-7 against losing teams, and the Dodgers have won four of their last five series openers. Plus, they're on a 5-1 run in the series.
San Diego, on the flip side, is on slides of 6-13 overall, 2-5 at home, 4-11 as an underdog and 1-9 in its last 10 series openers.
All that said, the pitching matchup tonight might actually work in favor of the lowly Padres. Chad Gaudin has allowed just five earned runs over his last three starts, covering 21 innings, for a 2.14 ERA. Last Sunday, he threw eight shutout innings of one-hit ball, with nine strikeouts, in a 2-0 win at Texas.
Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda, meanwhile, is 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA in his last four starts.
Friday's Quick Hits:
The Yankees, opening a home set with the Blue Jays, have won seven of their last eight games. A.J. Burnett is 4-2 with a solid 1.75 ERA in his last six starts.
The Cubs are on runs at Wrigley Field of 5-0 overall and 7-2 against winning teams, as they resume their series with Milwaukee.
The Brewers have lost four in a row on the road, and Jeff Suppan is 1-4 with a 6.31 ERA in his last seven starts against Chicago, including 0-2 with a bloated 7.45 ERA in two outings this season.
The Diamondbacks have lost seven of their last eight, as they open a road set with Colorado.
The Rockies are 21-5 in their last 26 games, and they've gone 10-2 in their last 12 at Coors Field, winning five in a row at home. The lone issue: starter Jorge De La Rosa is 1-5 with an inflated 7.97 ERA in seven home outings this year.
The Phillies, hosting the Mets, are on a 4-14 freefall, and they are a putrid 13-22 at home this season, losing six straight at Citizens Bank Park.
The Angels are 15-5 in their last 20 home clashes with the Orioles.
The Braves, coming off a three-game home sweep of the World Series champion Phillies, have won four in a row, and starter Kenshin Kawakami has yielded three earned runs or less in 10 straight starts, heading into Washington today.
The Nationals are 1-7 behind Ross Detwiler, and the Nationals have a league-worst 5.21 ERA.
The Astros have won six of their last eight overall, but Felipe Paulino (2-4, 5.51 ERA) has lost all three of his road starts this year, largely due to his 6.89 ERA on the highway, with the host Giants on deck today.
The Mariners' Felix Hernandez has given up two earned runs or less in seven straight starts, going 4-0 with a sparkling 0.85 ERA, heading into Fenway Park today to face the Red Sox. He's also 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA against Boston, carrying a 15-inning shutout streak in winning his two career starts there.
Boston starter Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.18 ERA) went 4-0 with a 3.45 ERA in five June outings, and the Sox are a major league-best 25-10 at home this year.
In seven career starts against the Rangers, Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA, heading into today's series opener in Arlington.
Royals starter Zack Greinke (10-3, 1.95 ERA) is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts against the White Sox this year, with the two teams squaring off today in Kansas City.
The White Sox are on a 13-4 road run and have won six in a row overall heading into tonight's game versus KC.
- Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com and the featured handicapping analyst on SportsNet New York's Daily News Live, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at VegasAdvisors.com
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