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Big Number Too Heavy for Boise State:
For 30 minutes Friday night, it appeared that fifth-ranked Boise State --- unbeaten and carrying a boatload of BCS aspirations --- would do what it should by steamrolling a much less heralded opponent in Louisiana Tech.
The Broncos took a 27-7 lead into the locker room, just one point shy of the 21-point spread. If they were even half as good in the second half, they'd cover the number on the road. And they were actually better than half as good, scoring 18 in the final 30 minutes.
The only problem: Boise State gave up four times as many points in the second half, including a 76-yard INT return for a TD just two minutes in, immediately cutting its lead in half. And you know the altruism of betting by now: You can't handicap turnovers.
The Broncos still got the less-than-impressive 45-35 straight-up (SU) victory, after letting the Bulldogs draw as close as two points at 30-28 early in the fourth quarter. But they fell well short against the spread, as La. Tech capped a decent few days for weekday underdogs, who went 3-1-1 ATS in Week 10.
Through 37 weekday games this year, the dogs are 20-16-1 at the betting window, and though the weekday visitors went a middling 2-2-1 ATS this week, they are still 21-15-1 for the year against the oddsmakers.
Boise State also failed to keep up the most consistent trend of the season in weekday college football: SU winners beating the number. However, SU winners are still a dominant 29-7-1 ATS, cashing at an 80.6 percent clip.
One more FYI: Heading into this week's contests, the under was a solid 22-10 in weekday affairs this year. But four of this week's five games cleared the posted price, including Friday night's high-scoring affair sailing over the posted price of 53.5, cutting the under's edge to 23-14 on weekdays.
College Football Two-Minute Drill:
Once again, it's Saturday, and it's fall, so it's wall-to-wall football. We'll wrap this up by checking on a big bundle of trends from today's full slate of games:
- No. 4 Cincinnati, hosting UConn, has won 14 straight regular-season games (9-4 ATS), and the home team has covered in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
- The Huskies are on a 7-1 ATS tear and have cashed in four straight road games.
- The visitor is on a 13-1 ATS roll in the last 14 meetings between Navy and Notre Dame, and the Midshipmen have covered in nine straight at South Bend.
- In the rivalry between LSU and Alabama, the road team is on a 10-1-2 ATS run, and the Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS on their last six visits to Tuscaloosa. However, No. 9 LSU is on pointspread purges of 8-20-1 in regular-season play and 6-15-1 in the SEC.
- No. 3 Bama is just 10-22-1 ATS in its last 33 as a home chalk, but the Tide are also on ATS runs of 10-4 laying points and 7-3 in the SEC.
- The over has hit in 10 of Kansas' last 14 games and 43 of Kansas State's last 63 contests, heading into today's tilt in Manhattan.
- No. 20 Oklahoma is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in its last four meetings with Nebraska and is on further ATS runs of 7-1-1 on the highway, 7-1 as a road chalk, 7-2-1 in the Big 12 and 5-0 in November.
- The Huskers are on ATS skids of 1-4 in the Big 12 and 1-5 in home conference games.
- Oregon State has won and cashed on its last three trips to California, and the Beavers are on further pointspread rolls of 15-5 in the Pac-10, 10-3 on the road and 5-0 in Pac-10 roadies.
- The Golden Bears have failed to cash in four of their last five (all in the Pac-10), though they are still 9-3 ATS in their last dozen home games.
- No. 7 Oregon, visiting Stanford, is on spread-covering sprees of 6-0 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-0 laying points, 5-0 as a road chalk and 7-0 in the Pac-10.
- The Cardinal have covered in their last 10 home games (9-1 SU).
- The home team is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 battles between Florida State and Clemson, with the Tigers sporting the home uniforms today.
- Clemson is on ATS tears of 9-3 overall, 6-1 at home and 6-1 in the ACC.
- No. 13 Houston, at Tulsa, is on a 1-6 ATS slide as a road favorite, but the Cougars are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall (4-0 last four).
- No. 12 USC, traveling to Arizona State, has dropped three in a row and six of seven at the betting window, and the Trojans are a dismal 7-15 ATS in their last 22 starts overall. That said, Pete Carroll's troops have always been solid late in the regular season, going a perfect 27-0 SU and 21-5 ATS in November.
- Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com and the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at VegasAdvisors.com
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