Call me crazy, ignorant or just plain out of my mind, but here goes: Jimmie Johnson won't win a fifth straight NASCAR Sprint Cup title in 2010.

You read correctly. I meant what I said. There's no turning back now.

Of course, knowing Johnson, I'll probably look pretty silly about this time next year. Doubts and doubters have never stopped him from winning championships.

But here's predicting that Johnson's extended reign atop the NASCAR world will end, at least temporarily, at four consecutive championships. That's certainly not to say that the Hendrick Motorsports driver won't claim a fifth, sixth, seventh or, yes, even eighth crown at some point in the future.

It just won't happen in 2010. And there are a few reasons why.

For starters, no driver or team is perfect. If Johnson were perfect, the 34-year-old would be the defending eight-time Cup champion rather than a defending four-time series champ.

As you might recall, Johnson did not win the championship in any of his first four seasons in the Cup series. Yes, he finished in the top five in the point standings in each of those campaigns and was a legitimate championship contender from the outset, but it took him five years to actually be a champion.

While it's understandable that an aura of invincibility has surrounded Johnson the last couple seasons in NASCAR's Chase For The Sprint Cup, the thought that Johnson is invincible is mere myth.

Even Richard Petty, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt missed out on a few championships in their heyday. Are we really to believe that Johnson is in such a league of his own that he's immune from falling short in a championship battle?

If it can happen to Petty, Pearson, Earnhardt and other NASCAR greats, it can absolutely happen to Johnson. Of course, that doesn't mean it will happen next season.

But when you consider just how hungry and tired of losing Johnson's top challengers are, there's good reason to believe he'll go down in 2010.

If you watched any or all of the 2009 season, you'll know that there were times – albeit most of them before the Chase – when Johnson looked very beatable.

How did teammate Mark Martin, Stewart-Haas Racing's Tony Stewart, Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch and JGR's Denny Hamlin combine for 17 wins if Johnson wasn't beatable? Clearly, he was. As usual, though, he happened to peak at the right time – in the Chase.

With all due respect for Johnson, his ultrasavvy crew chief, Chad Knaus, and the entire No. 48 team, it's impossible for any group to be at its best at crunch time EVERY single year.

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Even if Johnson is as strong as ever in the 2010 Chase, you've got to figure there's going to be at least a few others guys who do the same. And Johnson, despite his knack for avoiding trouble on the track, is still not immune to being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

His crash on lap 3 of the November race at Texas Motor Speedway proved that Johnson is as prone to getting caught up in someone else's mess as the next guy. Just as it's impossible for a driver and team to bat 1.000 every season in terms of performance and speed, it's also impossible to always have luck on your side.

Just as easily as Hamlin missed out on a shot at the championship because of three DNFs to Johnson's zero in the 2009 Chase, fortunes could be reversed in 2010. Johnson's luck could finally run out.

If nothing else, just the sheer level of competition in the Sprint Cup Series right now doesn't bode well for Johnson keeping his championship streak alive another year.

Contrary to what some people will tell you, the Cup series is more competitive now than it has ever been. Just because the racing itself may not be as exciting as in years gone by, it's harder than ever to be the best ... and stay the best.

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The 2010 season will also mark the third full campaign with the current model Sprint Cup car, which Johnson's team clearly needed less time to master than others. As other top organizations such as Roush Fenway Racing and Richard Childress Racing learn more about the car, the gap between Hendrick Motorsports and its competition is destined to shrink.

The only question is whether it will be enough for someone to dethrone the reigning champ in 2010.

After all, no one is perfect. Not even Jimmie Johnson.

Jared Turner is a staff writer at NASCAR Scene. For more racing news, visit SceneDaily.com.

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