Let's say you flip a coin 99 times. Let's say it comes up heads every time. What are the odds it will come up heads again?

Sure, they feel low, but if I've got my statistics right, the chances are 50 percent, just as they are with every flip. It may be highly unlikely that you can flip a coin to heads 100 times in a row, but once you've done it 99 times, you've got a 50-50 chance of getting to 100.

All of which is a roundabout way of saying Jimmie Johnson is still the man to beat in 2010.

It's tempting to think the "odds are against" Jimmie because he's already won four NASCAR Sprint Cup championships in a row. Well, the odds may have been against the 48 car winning five in a row back in February 2006, but 2010 is a new season, and to handicap it we only have to ask one question: Which is the best team?

That's where the last four years do come into play. They prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the 48 is the best all-around team in the garage: best driver, best crew chief, best owner, best team.

And it's hard to see anything that will make it any less dominating.

Some might argue that the change from the wing to the spoiler dims Jimmie's chances a bit, because his last two titles have showed mastery of the current machine. To my way of thinking, any significant change cuts in his favor because the team has proven time and again that it is best at adapting to changing circumstances. If anyone will have the spoiler figured out by the Chase, it stands to be Johnson and his team, even if he starts off the season slowly, as he did two years ago.

Maybe his imminent fatherhood will be enough to bring the champ down, as wife Chandra is expecting in July. He'll probably be smack in the middle of sleepless nights come Chase time. But something tells me Jimmie will get enough rest during race weekend.

Then, of course, you've got the challengers, some of whom are showing signs of catching Jimmie. Tony Stewart led the points heading into the Chase last year, he owns two titles, and now that he's in Year 2 with his new team, he should start 2010 with a much better basis for success.

Denny Hamlin is fond of pointing out that he outran Jimmie in half the Chase races in 2009. He's much better on downforce tracks than he's ever been and he finally seems to have both the speed and maturity to contend for a title.

Kyle Busch can't possibly miss the Chase again, right? And he's a guy capable of dominating any 10-race stretch of races.

Then there are Jimmie's own teammates. Like Stewart, Mark Martin is in Year 2 of his new ride, and he proved last year he can be a big winner with crew chief Alan Gustufson. Jeff Gordon has won four titles and knows time is running out to win a fifth.

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And what about all the guys who are looking to bounce back, especially Carl Edwards who went from nine wins to zero; Matt Kenseth, who was a champion way back in 2003, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR's most popular driver?

Any of these guys could beat Jimmie. Each of them could, if everything breaks just right, be a title contender. But only Gordon, Stewart, and Kenseth have done it before.

Of course, that thinking cuts both ways. Four titles in four years don't count for anything in this season, and Jimmie will have plenty of obstacles to overcome if he wants to make history yet again. And I suppose he can't win titles for the rest of time.

But for now, the 2010 season starts the same way as the 2009 season ended: with Jimmie Johnson as the man to beat. Good luck to all the teams that are trying.

Bass Masters, Buck Fever and Buzz Cutler are co-hosts of Rowdy.com. For the best NASCAR community on the internet go to Rowdy.com.

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