Getty Images for NASCARAt this point in the Sprint Cup season, it's tough to figure out what we're looking at. Does examination of points, passes, data and standings produce reality or illusion? Three races – one of which was a plate race – is hardly enough to yield evidence that will stand up in a court of law.
But this is no courtroom. So here is a short list of things that are real and illusory in Cup as the series heads into March.
Reality: Richard Childress Racing has returned to the top shelf. All three RCR drives will make the Chase, and Clint Bowyer will make a strong challenge for the championship.
Illusion: Peace has broken out between Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin. I really think these two guys do not like each other, and another clash could be just a lap away.
Reality: Martin Truex Jr.'s decision to bolt Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing was ill timed. EGR is cranking out horsepower and is on the mend.
Illusion: Complaining about Goodyear tires is a thing of the past. Never going to happen. Tires are an easy target when things get messy.
Reality: Jimmie Johnson is heading for his best season yet in terms of victories. He has won two of three at a time of year he normally is merely good.
Illusion: Johnson is a slam dunk to get his fifth straight victory. Winning a lot of races can be erased by one punctured tire and one Sam Hornish Jr. ill-timed spin move in the Chase.
Reality: Joey Logano has arrived as a Sprint Cup driver. It was just a matter of time, patience and guidance.
Illusion: Juan Pablo Montoya was a one-year wonder. The guy is the ultimate big-picture seer. He will begin whittling his way back to the top 10 and soon.
Reality: Furniture Row has it more together than Front Row.
Illusion: Mark Martin shot his final bolt last year and will sink back to mediocrity this year.
Reality: Stewart-Haas Racing is settling in to a more realistic mode of success. Stewart will make Chase, Newman will not.
Illusion: Have At It Boys racing is having a noticeable effect on racing. The crazies are still crazy and the responsible drivers are still responsible.
Reality: Four tires are better than two if you want to win the race.
Illusion: David Ragan is better than Regan Smith.
Reality: Dale Earnhardt Jr. is pulling things together and will make the Chase this season.
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